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Bernanke's Casino of Paper

 

Let's be very specific:

 

What REALLY caused the Great Depression? Contrary to popular opinion, Herbert Hoover- falsely accused- had little to do with it.

 

On October 29, 1929, Congress passed the Smoot Hawley Tariff - the same day of the infamous Wall Street Stock market crash. 

 

Actually, Smoot Hawley had NOT been designed to protect U.S. manufactured goods:

 

It's implementation arose from heavy pressure by American farmers, whose exports - although booming during the early 1920's - began falling with the resurgence of European agricultural producers, who'd finally recovered from World War I. 

 

Also in 1929, Europe's economy was rapidly declining, causing Germany to default on its (Treaty of Versailles) war reparations' payments to the Allies.

 

After the German default was announced, panicked European money traders began converting their English pounds into gold. After an 18-month run, Britain's gold reserves were approaching danger levels.

 

Thus, in early 1931, the Bank of London  announced it would no longer peg the British pound to the price of gold. The pound promptly fell in value by 20%.

 

Now the real American crisis began to unfold.

 

A less-valuable pound made British exports more competitive, because they became cheaper in foreign markets; this caused U.S. products to become more expensive overseas, and American exports of manufactured goods "fell off the table."

 

This sudden decline in exports led to rapid job losses in the U.S. manufacturing sector, and concomitantly, American farmers were also going under. 

 

By September 1931 - with Britain having abandoned its gold standard - foreign depositors in large New York banks, fearing America might follow suit, rushed to convert their cash deposits to gold.

 

Now the effect began to snowball all across America.

 

Sudden withdrawal demands in metropolitan areas started a massive panic, as banks everywhere were suddenly bled dry of gold deposits.

 

By the end of 1931, a liquidity crisis had caused the failure of 2,300 banks.

 

In late1932, there was near-panic, reaching its peak in March 1933, when new president Franklin Roosevelt decared all banks closed for a four-day holiday.

 

Hence it was "demon gold"- initiated by the protective policies of the Bank of London- that actually opened the door to the Great depression; and Smoot Hawley, along with the hapless Herbert Hoover, have needlessly shouldered much of the blame.

 

But history remains accurate in maligning the Federal Reserve for its deflationary, high-interest rate policy of the 1930's, which PROLONGED - not caused- the Great Depression. 

 

Today, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke claims he is a student of all this; and remains confident that by taking the opposite tack (zero prime interest rates) he can prevent a second depression, with an expansive - rather than restrictive - monetary policy approach.

 

But "zero-interest" Bernanke ignores the obvious at America's peril:

 

As Bernacke floods the world with cheaper U.S. dollars (unbacked by gold) to fund Obama's obscene deficits, our currency buys less a home, but enables other nations - now holding more dollars - to purchase more of the world's commodities, thereby making them more expensive to American consumers.

 

Have you priced a box of cereal lately? Or how 'bout an 8-pack of beer? Do you often wonder why- despite declining demand - U.S. gas prices remain "artificially" high?

 

Indeed- the dollar's trouble has begun:

 

As domestic prices keep going up (with interest rates zero) the Fed must either raise rates - or print more money. Thus, we are now imperiled by a possible "dollar-death-spiral" down to a third world country. As long as the bearded Fed boss keeps printing "money from nowhere"-  choosing to inflate the dollar - the situation only becomes worse.

 

In just the last quarter (March to June) the dollar's value has fallen an ominous 11% against the Euro....a result of the growing U.S. deficit (O-Bamanomics), which is reducing confidence in the dollar's value as it trades overseas. 

 

In stark terms, this means the European standard of living has risen 11%; but the American public's purchasing power is down by that same 11% - without even realizing it!

 

Indeed...dollar ignorance is NOT bliss! 

 

EXAMPLE #2: Let's say you're a real shrewdie, and you've hidden $100,000 in your basement freezer in "Benjamins" - $100 dollar bills.

 

Well guess what mister Shrewdie - although it's the same total amount - your NET loss since March is 11%. But despite the grievous decline from inflation, you did NOT even realize it; and those precious Benjamins are now worth only $89.00 each.

 

This is similar to why gambling casinos issue you chips; as you lose money, the loss seems ethereal; whereas if you were playing with actual dollars, losses would immediately be apparent, and you would withdraw from the game.

 

Hence there has been no political backlash against the recklessness of the sneaky fools that call themselves the Obama administration, as they treat America's dollar assets as if they were poker chips.

 

Thanks to their profligate spending/printing, sooner or later, the public will realize we are fast careening downward to an economic waterloo--- all of our own making.

 

What Obama and his two dunces- Bernanke and Geithner - are doing resembles a circus high-wire juggling act; but sooner or later it's bound to fall:

 

-How much longer can they keep the dollar from plunging?

-How much longer will the price of gold stay down?

-How much longer can they keep the level of the stock market up?

 

Any changes in one (or all of the above) will trigger the downward  spiral, and once begun, what's to stop it?

 

Right now the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been relatively healthy; but people have failed to notice the REAL leading indicator of trouble.

 

As of late June, the NASDAQ recently fell below 1800- a critical support level - portending  "net-zero" future job growth.

 

Why? This means entrepreneurs who start new companies (who list on NASDAQ) - now denied tax cuts and incentives - are literally frozen in fear by the political whims of Obama; and (like the1930's) lack confidence in hiring or expanding until the outlook becomes clearer. 

 

In the roaring bull market of 1982-87, it was the NASDAQ - not the Dow - that powered the decade-long 80's boom. 

 

Stocks of brand new companies like Apple & Microsoft - and the tech sector in general- were the drivers of America's economic growth during those "go-go" Reagan years.

 

And in the 90's, it wasn't the economic policies of Bill Clinton, but rather the wealth created by the booming rise in the NASDAQ, this time powered by the internet companies that were founded by the entrepreneurs of "Silicon Valley."

 

But as we head into the next decade, once again lets be very specific: the essential need for economic recovery calls for America to commence producing SOMETHING besides mountains of debt.

 

But lacking any real foundation, the Bernanke-Obama-Geithner juggling act WILL inevitably fall. The Fed's insane "money from nothing" printing press, and the Obama phony anti-stimulus, is just delaying the inevitable.

 

Have a wonderful life.

 

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