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Bernanke's Casino of Paper

 

Let's be very specific:

 

What REALLY caused the Great Depression? Contrary to popular opinion, Herbert Hoover- falsely accused- had little to do with it.

 

On October 29, 1929, Congress passed the Smoot Hawley Tariff - the same day of the infamous Wall Street Stock market crash. 

 

Actually, Smoot Hawley had NOT been designed to protect U.S. manufactured goods:

 

It's implementation arose from heavy pressure by American farmers, whose exports - although booming during the early 1920's - began falling with the resurgence of European agricultural producers, who'd finally recovered from World War I. 

 

Also in 1929, Europe's economy was rapidly declining, causing Germany to default on its (Treaty of Versailles) war reparations' payments to the Allies.

 

After the German default was announced, panicked European money traders began converting their English pounds into gold. After an 18-month run, Britain's gold reserves were approaching danger levels.

 

Thus, in early 1931, the Bank of London  announced it would no longer peg the British pound to the price of gold. The pound promptly fell in value by 20%.

 

Now the real American crisis began to unfold.

 

A less-valuable pound made British exports more competitive, because they became cheaper in foreign markets; this caused U.S. products to become more expensive overseas, and American exports of manufactured goods "fell off the table."

 

This sudden decline in exports led to rapid job losses in the U.S. manufacturing sector, and concomitantly, American farmers were also going under. 

 

By September 1931 - with Britain having abandoned its gold standard - foreign depositors in large New York banks, fearing America might follow suit, rushed to convert their cash deposits to gold.

 

Now the effect began to snowball all across America.

 

Sudden withdrawal demands in metropolitan areas started a massive panic, as banks everywhere were suddenly bled dry of gold deposits.

 

By the end of 1931, a liquidity crisis had caused the failure of 2,300 banks.

 

In late1932, there was near-panic, reaching its peak in March 1933, when new president Franklin Roosevelt decared all banks closed for a four-day holiday.

 

Hence it was "demon gold"- initiated by the protective policies of the Bank of London- that actually opened the door to the Great depression; and Smoot Hawley, along with the hapless Herbert Hoover, have needlessly shouldered much of the blame.

 

But history remains accurate in maligning the Federal Reserve for its deflationary, high-interest rate policy of the 1930's, which PROLONGED - not caused- the Great Depression. 

 

Today, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke claims he is a student of all this; and remains confident that by taking the opposite tack (zero prime interest rates) he can prevent a second depression, with an expansive - rather than restrictive - monetary policy approach.

 

But "zero-interest" Bernanke ignores the obvious at America's peril:

 

As Bernacke floods the world with cheaper U.S. dollars (unbacked by gold) to fund Obama's obscene deficits, our currency buys less a home, but enables other nations - now holding more dollars - to purchase more of the world's commodities, thereby making them more expensive to American consumers.

 

Have you priced a box of cereal lately? Or how 'bout an 8-pack of beer? Do you often wonder why- despite declining demand - U.S. gas prices remain "artificially" high?

 

Indeed- the dollar's trouble has begun:

 

As domestic prices keep going up (with interest rates zero) the Fed must either raise rates - or print more money. Thus, we are now imperiled by a possible "dollar-death-spiral" down to a third world country. As long as the bearded Fed boss keeps printing "money from nowhere"-  choosing to inflate the dollar - the situation only becomes worse.

 

In just the last quarter (March to June) the dollar's value has fallen an ominous 11% against the Euro....a result of the growing U.S. deficit (O-Bamanomics), which is reducing confidence in the dollar's value as it trades overseas. 

 

In stark terms, this means the European standard of living has risen 11%; but the American public's purchasing power is down by that same 11% - without even realizing it!

 

Indeed...dollar ignorance is NOT bliss! 

 

EXAMPLE #2: Let's say you're a real shrewdie, and you've hidden $100,000 in your basement freezer in "Benjamins" - $100 dollar bills.

 

Well guess what mister Shrewdie - although it's the same total amount - your NET loss since March is 11%. But despite the grievous decline from inflation, you did NOT even realize it; and those precious Benjamins are now worth only $89.00 each.

 

This is similar to why gambling casinos issue you chips; as you lose money, the loss seems ethereal; whereas if you were playing with actual dollars, losses would immediately be apparent, and you would withdraw from the game.

 

Hence there has been no political backlash against the recklessness of the sneaky fools that call themselves the Obama administration, as they treat America's dollar assets as if they were poker chips.

 

Thanks to their profligate spending/printing, sooner or later, the public will realize we are fast careening downward to an economic waterloo--- all of our own making.

 

What Obama and his two dunces- Bernanke and Geithner - are doing resembles a circus high-wire juggling act; but sooner or later it's bound to fall:

 

-How much longer can they keep the dollar from plunging?

-How much longer will the price of gold stay down?

-How much longer can they keep the level of the stock market up?

 

Any changes in one (or all of the above) will trigger the downward  spiral, and once begun, what's to stop it?

 

Right now the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been relatively healthy; but people have failed to notice the REAL leading indicator of trouble.

 

As of late June, the NASDAQ recently fell below 1800- a critical support level - portending  "net-zero" future job growth.

 

Why? This means entrepreneurs who start new companies (who list on NASDAQ) - now denied tax cuts and incentives - are literally frozen in fear by the political whims of Obama; and (like the1930's) lack confidence in hiring or expanding until the outlook becomes clearer. 

 

In the roaring bull market of 1982-87, it was the NASDAQ - not the Dow - that powered the decade-long 80's boom. 

 

Stocks of brand new companies like Apple & Microsoft - and the tech sector in general- were the drivers of America's economic growth during those "go-go" Reagan years.

 

And in the 90's, it wasn't the economic policies of Bill Clinton, but rather the wealth created by the booming rise in the NASDAQ, this time powered by the internet companies that were founded by the entrepreneurs of "Silicon Valley."

 

But as we head into the next decade, once again lets be very specific: the essential need for economic recovery calls for America to commence producing SOMETHING besides mountains of debt.

 

But lacking any real foundation, the Bernanke-Obama-Geithner juggling act WILL inevitably fall. The Fed's insane "money from nothing" printing press, and the Obama phony anti-stimulus, is just delaying the inevitable.

 

Have a wonderful life.

 

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Will Obama's emergency put the economy on life support?


And now...a moment of silence to pray for the savior. Our hallowed President-elect, Barack Obama, is facing a rapidly growing list of monumental challenges as he prepares to take the reins of a nation in turmoil. Obama sounds dire, particularly when he recently spoke about the economy: "We're in an emergency", he stated rather succinctly.

But the media is solidly behind Obama's emergency strategy. The Associated Press recently issued a release that sounded as if 1933 was Nirvana compared to the present:(quote) "With woes foreign and domestic on more fronts than even Franklin D. Roosevelt encountered when he took office in the midst of the Great Depression, Obama will be sworn in as the country's 44th president in January" (unquote). Whoa now-- this AP report does sound dire indeed!

 

But an emergency? Oh sure--such an emergency! Mr Obama may have to call out the National Guard to control the all the bargain-crazed holiday shoppers, who are out in droves at the nation's malls and big box stores. And the highways and roads are hardly deserted. In fact, the price of gas has dropped faster than the Dow-Jones, and trucks and SUV's have made a Lazarus-like resurrection from the dead. If the banks were to loosen up on their credit boycott, pent-up new vehicle sales would be further proof that the Obama "declaration of an emergency" is bereft of credibility.

And the precipitous decline in the world price for crude oil also throws a gorilla-sized monkey wrench into Barack's strategy for "creating five million new green energy jobs". Wind and solar may be the renewable energy sources of the future, but the market demand for such projects is practically zilcho, now that oil is cheap again, and the prices of all other energy (such as coal and natural gas) have fallen along in "sympathy".

 

Even the weather is not co-operating. The coldest November-December in North America since 1976 seems to have put the damper on Obama's pet projects--turning back the oceans, and saving the planet from 'climate change'. Even the glaciers within the Arctic Circle are in defiance of the savior; they are now in the process of reforming as the earth returns to another cooling cycle.

 

Oh woe is the almighty Barack! It seems the only real emergency is that our president-elect's sacred credibility is looking iffy when you consider that nobody is forming soup lines, and rising layoffs may be more the case of Obamanomic fear-mongering, than the actual economic reality at hand. This begs the question: is Barack trying to talk our economy into a depression? And that begs the second question-- why would he do that?

 

Back in late 1932, president-elect Franklin Roosevelt watched the economy slide further and further into the abyss, but did nothing. Times indeed were at an emergency then. There were 12 million out of work, 25% unemployment, and 23,000 Americans had committed suicide, because they had gone from rich to poor literally overnight, and could not reconcile this with themselves. People WERE actually in danger of starving. There was no welfare or safety net back then.

 

So after Roosevelt finally took the reins, the nation was literally panting for a savior, and FDR was given political carte blanche to do whatever he deemed necessary, in the period history has dubbed, "The First 100 Days"

 

And Barack wants to be the next FDR: sit back while the economy tanks...make the situation seem worse than it is....build up the hopes of the anxious people...then emerge dramatically next Jan. 21 as the great savior, just like FDR after his transition period.

 

Obama's  false emergency declaration will allow him to ram through Congress much of his disastrous leftist attack on our free market capitalism, and even upon the Constitution itself. Look for the savior to please his political special interests, as he destroys much of our heavy industry by taxing the energy producers, and forcing the green cars of the future upon us, when neither is necessary. And the more Obama can play boogie-man, the more willing Americans will be amenable to granting him powers far beyond that of any previous mortal who served in the Whitehouse

 

 

Of course the Machiavellian Obama knows all this; so what will he be doing before the big inauguration? He'll be laying the groundwork for getting everything out the door the very day he gets in, with is his mega- trillion stimulus package. And  this "emergency" also includes climate change, government health care, and all the other socialistic goodies he's been planning as a truly "transformational" president.

Another vital facet of Obama's emergency is speed--getting everything out the door quickly. By avoiding anything that requires planning, and throwing huge sums of stimulus money at things that already obvious, Obama will truly seem FDR-like by proposing a plethora of ideas that seem sound, but are decidedly old-school, make-work government programs. How transformational is it to refurbish roads and bridges, and repairing schools and federal buildings?

Come next January, the spending binge will blast off, because an eager-beaver Congress will turn Obama's first 100 days into the first 100 hours. Things will get rushed through that would otherwise, hit Congressional roadblocks in more politically sanguine times. Opposing Obama will be like opposing Santa-- it will be so politically incorrect that any dissenting republicans will run for cover-- lest they be swamped by a wave of public disapproval from all sides.

And because Obama will be spending so much upfront, will there be anything left for the transformational projects America truly needs, such as innovative rail systems (i.e. high speed) and social programs that address our true problems: those concerning public school discipline, abortion and teen pregnancy, and the thousands of drug-addicted, alcohol-addled people who shamelessly beg in the nation's downtowns.

To Obama's credit, a stimulus package may psychologically benefit in the short term. And bailouts may provide stopgap relief for the troubled auto and airline industries. But unless the savior can put aside his politics of emergency, little will be done to relieve the most intractable, long-term problems that truly require transformational solutions.

 

During his first term, Obama may discover that his band-aid approach won't work where major surgery is required. And Dr. Barack may also realize too late that his self-declared economic emergency was all along, a misrepresentation -- and there will be no wave of "change" that involves "spreading the wealth" around-- only a new cover on the old-fashioned socialistic policies of the past; which is Obama's version of the old 1930's New Deal.

 

And if the savior isn't careful, his declaration of emergency could backfire into a self-fulfilling prophesy, and result in a truly unnecessary second depression if he doesn't soon change his doom 'n gloom tune.

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